La Bola Negra‘s fortunes are on the rise since its big People’s Choice Award win at the Toronto Film Festival last weekend, establishing itself as Best Picture contender, according to Gold Derby’s prediction data. Meanwhile, co-directors Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, aka Los Javis, are projected to make the Best Director lineup. If they do so, they’d become the fifth directing duo in history to be recognized with a nomination in this category.
Throughout the Academy’s nearly 100-year history, four duos have managed to score Oscar noms in the Best Director category:
- Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins — West Side Story (1961)*
- Warren Beatty and Buck Henry — Heaven Can Wait (1978)
- Joel Coen and Ethan Coen — No Country for Old Men (2007)* and True Grit (2010)
- Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert — Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022)*
*These duos would also win the Academy Award.
La Bola Negra follows the lives of three gay men (played by Milo Quifes, Guitarricadelafuente, and Miguel Bernardeau) in 1932, 1937, and 2017. They are connected through themes of sexuality, desire, pain, and inheritance.
The film is predicted to receive four Oscar bids for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress (Penélope Cruz), and Best Adapted Screenplay. Gold Derby has learned that all of the film’s cast members are being submitted in the supporting categories for awards.
Following the film’s debut at Cannes in May, the Javis became the second duo to win their Best Director award following Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne for Young Ahmed in 2019.
Many critics agree that the Javiers’ directing is worthy of an Oscar nom. Brian Tallerico (RogerEbert.com) applauded them for taking “a novelistic approach” while also delivering a film that felt like it was “painting on a broad canvas.” Sophie Monks Kaufman (IndieWire) said they pulled off “one perfectly coherent story” while also giving each narrative “a distinct visual identity.” Guy Lodge (Variety) thought they provided “enough confidently muscular filmmaking.”
According to our combined odds, the Javiers have an 83% chance of making the Best Director Oscar lineup. They’re sitting in second place behind the current front-runner, Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey). Behind the Javiers are Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine), Olivia Wilde (The Invite), and Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Digger).
Best Director
1.
Christopher Nolan
The Odyssey
2.
Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo
La Bola Negra
3.
Martin McDonagh
Wild Horse Nine
4.
5.
Alejandro G. Inarritu
Digger
The expert-only predictions are similar, though the Javiers place third at 82%. Nolan and McDonagh are in their first two spots, while Wilde and Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Three) round out the lineup.
Best Director
1.
Christopher Nolan
The Odyssey
2.
Martin McDonagh
Wild Horse Nine
3.
Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo
La Bola Negra
4.
5.
Denis Villeneuve
Dune: Part Three
