Croatia was the bookmakers’ favourite heading into the Eurovision 2024 grand final, but Switzerland won. Switzerland’s entry, The Code by Nemo, was third in the betting odds at the time. The result illustrates how to read those odds: they reflect the bookmakers’ assessment of each entry’s chances at a given moment, while the winner is decided by the vote.
What can you bet on at Eurovision?
The main betting market is the overall winner. Bookmakers may also offer odds on an entry qualifying for the grand final or finishing in the top three, five or ten. A top-five bet pays out if the act finishes anywhere from first to fifth, while a bet on the overall winner pays out only if the act finishes first. These markets were among those available for Eurovision 2024.
Iceland’s 2024 entry offers a clear example of the qualification market. On 8 April, Hera Björk’s chances of reaching the grand final with Scared of Heights were estimated at 23%. She received three points in the first semi-final, finished 15th out of 15 and did not qualify. Both the forecast and the actual result answer the same question: would Iceland reach the final?
Odds can shift after songs are released, rehearsals take place or semi-final results are announced. When comparing two forecasts, check the date and the market. Odds on reaching the final and odds on winning the contest reflect the chances of two different outcomes, even for the same act.
What to do if bookmakers and online casinos are unavailable in your country
Eurovision odds are publicly available, but whether you can place a bet depends on local rules and whether the bookmaker accepts customers from your country.
For example, bookmakers and any online casino Iceland residents can access are subject to different rules. Some forms of sports betting are permitted, while foreign bookmakers and online casinos are not authorised to operate in Iceland. According to Icelandic police, residents can access international gambling sites based in other jurisdictions. These platforms operate outside the oversight of Icelandic authorities.
Specialist gambling review sites can help you compare operators by their stated licences, the countries they accept customers from and their withdrawal terms. Check the information in a review against the licensing authority’s official register, the operator’s terms and the laws in your country.
How to read betting odds
Decimal odds show the total payout if a bet wins. For example, a €10 bet at odds of 4.00 returns €40. That includes the original €10 stake and €30 in profit.
You can also convert decimal odds into an implied probability by dividing 100 by the odds. Odds of 4.00 imply a probability of 25%, while odds of 2.00 imply 50%, before adjusting for the bookmaker’s margin. The lower the odds, the higher the implied probability.
In the Eurovision 2024 archive, bookmakers offered odds ranging from 4.50 to 6.50 on Nemo to win. Those figures imply probabilities of approximately 22.2% and 15.4%, respectively, before adjusting for the bookmaker’s margin. Eurovisionworld’s table lists Switzerland’s chances at 15%. This is an aggregate estimate, so it can differ from the implied probability calculated using a single bookmaker’s odds. To compare entries on the same basis, use odds from the same market and the same point in time.
